一、垃圾焚烧行业发展情况分析
我国垃圾焚烧发电行业起步于20世纪80-90年代末，通过引进国外先进的焚烧设备和技术，消化吸收优化。其中标志性事件是在1985年，深圳清水河引进日本设备，总结日本炉型经验进行扩建改造。
目前，我国垃圾处置的主流工艺包括填埋（占比56%）与焚烧（占比38%）两种工艺，随着填埋工艺扩张降速，填埋产能的收缩只是时间问题。
“十三五”期间填埋产能规模将同比回落5%：根据“十三五”规划，到2020年填埋产能规模约为47.71万吨/日，与2015年底50.15万吨/日相比，回落5%。2017年我国城市地区垃圾填埋场数量645个，首次出现同比回落。未来随着选址难度不断增加以及填埋处置方式对土地的消耗性占用，产能收缩的趋势较为确定，将为焚烧工艺的扩张腾挪空间。
垃圾填埋场维持每年淘汰3.29万吨：根据“十三五”规划，预计实施垃圾填埋场封场治理项目803个，封场产能16.31万吨/日；回顾“十二五”规划中，垃圾填埋场封场治理项目802个，封场产能16.55万吨/日。因此，我国在2010-2020年间垃圾填埋场保持每年封场160个、封场产能规模3.29万吨/日的产能淘汰规律。
I. Analysis of the development of municipal solid waste incineration industry.
China's waste incineration power generation industry started in the late 1980s and 1990s, through the introduction of foreign advanced incineration equipment and technology, digestion, absorption and optimization.
The landmark event was in 1985, when the Qingshui River in Shenzhen introduced Japanese equipment and summed up the experience of Japanese furnace type for expansion and transformation.
At present, the mainstream processes of garbage disposal in China include landfill (56%) and incineration (38%). With the expansion and slow down of landfill process, it is only a matter of time before landfill capacity shrinks.
The scale of landfill capacity during the 13th five-year Plan period will be 5 per cent lower than the same period last year: according to the 13th five-year Plan, the landfill capacity will be about 477100 tons per day by 2020, down 5 per cent from 501500 tons per day at the end of 2015.
In 2017, the number of landfills in urban areas of China was 645, showing a year-on-year decline for the first time.
In the future, with the increasing difficulty of site selection and the consumptive occupation of land by landfill disposal, the trend of capacity contraction is more certain, which will make room for the expansion of incineration process.
Landfills will be phased out 32900 tons a year: according to the 13th five-year Plan, it is expected to implement 803 landfill closure projects with a capacity of 163100 tons per day; reviewing the 12th five-year Plan, there are 802 landfill closure projects with a capacity of 165500 tons per day.
Therefore, from 2010 to 2020, landfills in China maintain the law of eliminating the production capacity of 32900 tons per day.
